App
Macro tools
Research · read-only · not advice.
US debt path
ResearchIllustrative path under stated assumptions — not a forecast or credit opinion.
Inputs · Research
Debt / GDP now
Research124%
Interest / GDP now
Research4.1%
Debt / GDP @40y
Research395%
Interest / GDP @40y
Research13.0%
Years to debt/GDP 100%
ResearchAlready above
Years to debt/GDP 120%
ResearchAlready above
Years to interest > primary
ResearchSet surplus
| Yr | Debt | GDP | Debt/GDP | Int/GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $36.0T | $29.0T | 124% | 4.1% |
| 5 | $50.4T | $32.0T | 157% | 5.2% |
| 10 | $67.2T | $35.4T | 190% | 6.3% |
| 15 | $87.1T | $39.0T | 223% | 7.4% |
| 20 | $110.5T | $43.1T | 256% | 8.5% |
| 25 | $138.0T | $47.6T | 290% | 9.6% |
| 30 | $170.3T | $52.5T | 324% | 10.7% |
| 35 | $208.3T | $58.0T | 359% | 11.9% |
| 40 | $253.0T | $64.0T | 395% | 13.0% |
Assumptions & path definition
- Entire block is Research — manual illustrative defaults, not Verified Treasury / CBO prints.
- Each year: interest = debt × avg interest; debt grows by (annual deficit − primary surplus) + interest; GDP grows at the stated rate.
- Stress thresholds: debt/GDP ≥ 100%, debt/GDP ≥ 120%, and interest > primary surplus (only when primary surplus > 0).
- Numbers are placeholders until on-chain / X SoT. Omit data-as-of until a sourced date exists.
- Current inputs: debt $36.0T, GDP $29.0T, deficit $1.5T/yr, avg interest 3.3%, GDP growth 2.0%, primary surplus off.
SoT: Research manual defaults · placeholder pending on-chain / X — not a dated Treasury print.
AI investment loop
ResearchIllustrative · Research — not a forecast or investment advice.
Big Tech capital → AI labs (OpenAI / Anthropic …) → recycle into compute / cloud / GPU spend (often same Big Tech) → mutual valuation uplift. This panel unpacks the fund loop and overlapping accounting.
Step 1
ResearchBig Tech capital
Microsoft · Alphabet · Amazon · Nvidia (optional) commit stake / credits into AI labs.
Step 2
ResearchAI labs
OpenAI · Anthropic · others receive capital and buy compute / cloud / GPUs.
Step 3
ResearchCompute recirculation
Spend returns as cloud revenue, CapEx, or GPU rent — often to the same capital side.
| Side | Name | Stake / commitment | Compute recirculation note | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital | Microsoft | — | Stake / cloud credits into labs · Research | — | Research |
| Capital | Alphabet | — | Stake / cloud into labs · Research | — | Research |
| Capital | Amazon | — | Stake / AWS credits into labs · Research | — | Research |
| Capital | Nvidia | — | Optional capital / GPU supply side · Research | — | Research |
| Receive | OpenAI | — | Lab receives capital · spends compute · Research | — | Research |
| Receive | Anthropic | — | Lab receives capital · spends compute · Research | — | Research |
| Receive | others | — | Additional labs TBD · Research | — | Research |
| Recirc | cloud revenue | — | Lab spend booked as Big Tech cloud revenue · Research | — | Research |
| Recirc | CapEx | — | Big Tech data-center / chip CapEx supporting labs · Research | — | Research |
| Recirc | GPU rent | — | GPU rental / capacity fees looping back · Research | — | Research |
Assumptions & scope
- Entire block is Research — placeholder entity rows only; amounts are — until filed SoT.
- Covered capital side: Microsoft · Alphabet · Amazon · Nvidia (optional).
- Covered receive side: OpenAI · Anthropic · others —.
- Recirc scope tracked as three separate rows: cloud revenue / CapEx / GPU rent — missing source → —.
- CapEx vs cloud-revenue definitions and stake/commitment sources stay unlabeled until cited. Omit data-as-of until a sourced date exists.
- No invented commitment sizes or valuation multiples.
Round sizes & cloud figures are Research placeholders until filed SoT; no invented multiples.